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Gandzasar vs Pyunik II — First League 2019

Gandzasar
Gandzasar
FT
5 – 4
HT: 3 – 3
Pyunik II
Pyunik II
5/20/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Gandzasar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Gandzasar59%
×Draw20%
Pyunik II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gandzasar
2.21
Pyunik II
1.24

Gandzasar creates 78% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 98 away

creates per match

Gandzasar
2.27
Pyunik II
1.46

allows per match

Gandzasar
1.02
Pyunik II
2.16

finishing

Gandzasar+0.00on par
Pyunik II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gandzasar ↓

Pyunik II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Gandzasar or draw
79%
Gandzasar or Pyunik II
80%
Draw or Pyunik II
41%

Winning margin

Gandzasar wins by 2+
37%
Pyunik II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gandzasar 1+ goals
89%
Gandzasar 2+ goals
65%
Gandzasar 3+ goals
38%
Pyunik II 1+ goals
71%
Pyunik II 2+ goals
35%
Pyunik II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gandzasar (draw refunded)
74%
Pyunik II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gandzasar at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Pyunik II away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gandzasar attack 2.27 + Pyunik II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.21

Pyunik II attack 1.46 + Gandzasar defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gandzasar scores more
59%
level
20%
Pyunik II scores more
21%

Gandzasar at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gandzasar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gandzasar vs Pyunik II

Gandzasar beat Pyunik II 5-4 in First League on May 20, 2024.

The match was played at Gandzasar Stadium in Kapan.