Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gandzasar vs Mika — First League 2019

Gandzasar
Gandzasar
FT
3 – 1
Mika
Mika
10/22/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Gandzasar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Gandzasar69%
×Draw17%
Mika14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gandzasar
2.49
Mika
1.02

Gandzasar creates 144% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 58 away

creates per match

Gandzasar
2.27
Mika
1.02

allows per match

Gandzasar
1.02
Mika
2.71

finishing

Gandzasar+0.00on par
Mika+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gandzasar ↓

Mika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Gandzasar or draw
86%
Gandzasar or Mika
83%
Draw or Mika
31%

Winning margin

Gandzasar wins by 2+
47%
Mika wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gandzasar 1+ goals
92%
Gandzasar 2+ goals
71%
Gandzasar 3+ goals
45%
Mika 1+ goals
64%
Mika 2+ goals
27%
Mika 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gandzasar (draw refunded)
83%
Mika (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gandzasar at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Mika away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.71 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gandzasar attack 2.27 + Mika defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.49

Mika attack 1.02 + Gandzasar defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Gandzasar scores more
69%
level
17%
Mika scores more
14%

Gandzasar at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Gandzasar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Gandzasar 3–1 Mika

Gandzasar beat Mika 3-1 in First League on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Gandzasar Stadium in Kapan.