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Gandzasar vs FC Urartu — Premier League 2019

Gandzasar
Gandzasar
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
11/28/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Junior Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Gandzasar23%
×Draw25%
FC Urartu52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gandzasar
0.98
FC Urartu
1.60

FC Urartu creates 63% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 105 away

creates per match

Gandzasar
0.96
FC Urartu
1.49

allows per match

Gandzasar
1.71
FC Urartu
1.01

finishing

Gandzasar+0.00on par
FC Urartu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gandzasar ↓

FC Urartu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gandzasar or draw
48%
Gandzasar or FC Urartu
75%
Draw or FC Urartu
77%

Winning margin

Gandzasar wins by 2+
8%
FC Urartu wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Gandzasar 1+ goals
62%
Gandzasar 2+ goals
26%
Gandzasar 3+ goals
8%
FC Urartu 1+ goals
80%
FC Urartu 2+ goals
47%
FC Urartu 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Gandzasar (draw refunded)
31%
FC Urartu (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gandzasar at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

FC Urartu away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gandzasar attack 0.96 + FC Urartu defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

FC Urartu attack 1.49 + Gandzasar defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gandzasar scores more
23%
level
25%
FC Urartu scores more
52%

FC Urartu at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Urartu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Gandzasar 0–4 FC Urartu

FC Urartu beat Gandzasar 4-0 in Premier League on November 28, 2024.

The match was played at Junior Sport Stadium in Yerevan.