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Gandzasar vs FC Noah — Premier League 2019

Gandzasar
Gandzasar
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FC Noah
FC Noah
3/10/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Junior Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Gandzasar26%
×Draw25%
FC Noah48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gandzasar
1.08
FC Noah
1.55

FC Noah creates 44% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 105 away

creates per match

Gandzasar
0.96
FC Noah
1.39

allows per match

Gandzasar
1.71
FC Noah
1.20

finishing

Gandzasar+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gandzasar ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gandzasar or draw
52%
Gandzasar or FC Noah
75%
Draw or FC Noah
74%

Winning margin

Gandzasar wins by 2+
10%
FC Noah wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Gandzasar 1+ goals
66%
Gandzasar 2+ goals
29%
Gandzasar 3+ goals
10%
FC Noah 1+ goals
79%
FC Noah 2+ goals
46%
FC Noah 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gandzasar (draw refunded)
35%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gandzasar at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

FC Noah away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gandzasar attack 0.96 + FC Noah defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

FC Noah attack 1.39 + Gandzasar defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gandzasar scores more
26%
level
25%
FC Noah scores more
48%

FC Noah at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Gandzasar 0–3 FC Noah

FC Noah beat Gandzasar 3-0 in Premier League on March 10, 2025.

The match was played at Junior Sport Stadium in Yerevan.