Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gandzasar vs BKMA II — First League 2019

Gandzasar
Gandzasar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
BKMA II
BKMA II
12/2/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Gandzasar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Gandzasar41%
×Draw23%
BKMA II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gandzasar
1.75
BKMA II
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 71 away

creates per match

Gandzasar
2.27
BKMA II
2.20

allows per match

Gandzasar
1.02
BKMA II
1.24

finishing

Gandzasar+0.00on par
BKMA II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gandzasar ↓

BKMA II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Gandzasar or draw
64%
Gandzasar or BKMA II
77%
Draw or BKMA II
59%

Winning margin

Gandzasar wins by 2+
22%
BKMA II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gandzasar 1+ goals
83%
Gandzasar 2+ goals
52%
Gandzasar 3+ goals
25%
BKMA II 1+ goals
80%
BKMA II 2+ goals
48%
BKMA II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Gandzasar (draw refunded)
54%
BKMA II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gandzasar at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

BKMA II away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gandzasar attack 2.27 + BKMA II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.75

BKMA II attack 2.20 + Gandzasar defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gandzasar scores more
41%
level
23%
BKMA II scores more
36%

Gandzasar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gandzasar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Gandzasar 1–0 BKMA II

Gandzasar beat BKMA II 1-0 in First League on December 2, 2022.

The match was played at Gandzasar Stadium in Kapan.