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Gandzasar vs Ararat — Premier League 2019

Gandzasar
Gandzasar
CANC
13:00
Ararat
Ararat
4/28/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Junior Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Gandzasar34%
×Draw26%
Ararat40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gandzasar
1.30
Ararat
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 107 away

creates per match

Gandzasar
0.96
Ararat
1.14

allows per match

Gandzasar
1.71
Ararat
1.64

finishing

Gandzasar+0.00on par
Ararat+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gandzasar ↓

Ararat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gandzasar or draw
60%
Gandzasar or Ararat
74%
Draw or Ararat
66%

Winning margin

Gandzasar wins by 2+
15%
Ararat wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Gandzasar 1+ goals
73%
Gandzasar 2+ goals
37%
Gandzasar 3+ goals
14%
Ararat 1+ goals
76%
Ararat 2+ goals
41%
Ararat 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gandzasar (draw refunded)
46%
Ararat (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gandzasar at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

Ararat away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gandzasar attack 0.96 + Ararat defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ararat attack 1.14 + Gandzasar defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gandzasar scores more
34%
level
26%
Ararat scores more
40%

Ararat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ararat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gandzasar vs Ararat — Match Preview

Gandzasar face Ararat on April 28, 2025 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Gandzasar host Ararat at Junior Sport Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.