Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

GAMTEL vs Tallinding United — GFA League 2020

GAMTEL
GAMTEL
FT
1 – 0
Tallinding United
Tallinding United
4/18/2021GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

GAMTEL38%
×Draw31%
Tallinding United31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GAMTEL
1.08
Tallinding United
0.94

GAMTEL creates 15% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 14 away

creates per match

GAMTEL
0.95
Tallinding United
0.93

allows per match

GAMTEL
0.95
Tallinding United
1.21

finishing

GAMTEL+0.00on par
Tallinding United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GAMTEL ↓

Tallinding United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

GAMTEL or draw
69%
GAMTEL or Tallinding United
69%
Draw or Tallinding United
62%

Winning margin

GAMTEL wins by 2+
15%
Tallinding United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

GAMTEL 1+ goals
66%
GAMTEL 2+ goals
29%
GAMTEL 3+ goals
10%
Tallinding United 1+ goals
61%
Tallinding United 2+ goals
24%
Tallinding United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

GAMTEL (draw refunded)
55%
Tallinding United (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GAMTEL at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Tallinding United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GAMTEL attack 0.95 + Tallinding United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Tallinding United attack 0.93 + GAMTEL defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

GAMTEL scores more
38%
level
31%
Tallinding United scores more
31%

GAMTEL at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "GAMTEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: GAMTEL 1–0 Tallinding United

GAMTEL beat Tallinding United 1-0 in GFA League on April 18, 2021.