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GAMTEL vs PSV Wellingara — GFA League 2020

GAMTEL
GAMTEL
FT
1 – 1
PSV Wellingara
PSV Wellingara
5/31/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

GAMTEL37%
×Draw33%
PSV Wellingara30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GAMTEL
0.94
PSV Wellingara
0.81

GAMTEL creates 16% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 15 away

creates per match

GAMTEL
0.95
PSV Wellingara
0.67

allows per match

GAMTEL
0.95
PSV Wellingara
0.93

finishing

GAMTEL+0.00on par
PSV Wellingara+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GAMTEL ↓

PSV Wellingara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

GAMTEL or draw
70%
GAMTEL or PSV Wellingara
67%
Draw or PSV Wellingara
63%

Winning margin

GAMTEL wins by 2+
14%
PSV Wellingara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

GAMTEL 1+ goals
61%
GAMTEL 2+ goals
24%
GAMTEL 3+ goals
7%
PSV Wellingara 1+ goals
56%
PSV Wellingara 2+ goals
19%
PSV Wellingara 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

GAMTEL (draw refunded)
55%
PSV Wellingara (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GAMTEL at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

PSV Wellingara away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GAMTEL attack 0.95 + PSV Wellingara defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

PSV Wellingara attack 0.67 + GAMTEL defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

GAMTEL scores more
37%
level
33%
PSV Wellingara scores more
30%

GAMTEL at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "GAMTEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: GAMTEL 1–1 PSV Wellingara

GAMTEL and PSV Wellingara drew 1-1 in GFA League on May 31, 2023.