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GAMTEL vs GPA — GFA League 2020

GAMTEL
GAMTEL
FT
1 – 2
GPA
GPA
7/27/2022GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

GAMTEL34%
×Draw32%
GPA33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GAMTEL
0.94
GPA
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 44 away

creates per match

GAMTEL
0.95
GPA
0.89

allows per match

GAMTEL
0.95
GPA
0.93

finishing

GAMTEL+0.00on par
GPA+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GAMTEL ↓

GPA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

GAMTEL or draw
67%
GAMTEL or GPA
68%
Draw or GPA
66%

Winning margin

GAMTEL wins by 2+
12%
GPA wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

GAMTEL 1+ goals
61%
GAMTEL 2+ goals
24%
GAMTEL 3+ goals
7%
GPA 1+ goals
60%
GPA 2+ goals
23%
GPA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

GAMTEL (draw refunded)
51%
GPA (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GAMTEL at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

GPA away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GAMTEL attack 0.95 + GPA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

GPA attack 0.89 + GAMTEL defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

GAMTEL scores more
34%
level
32%
GPA scores more
33%

GAMTEL at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "GAMTEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GAMTEL vs GPA

GPA beat GAMTEL 2-1 in GFA League on July 27, 2022.