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GAMTEL vs Brikama United — GFA League 2020

GAMTEL
GAMTEL
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Brikama United
Brikama United
7/22/2022GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

GAMTEL36%
×Draw31%
Brikama United33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GAMTEL
1.01
Brikama United
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 89 away

creates per match

GAMTEL
0.95
Brikama United
0.97

allows per match

GAMTEL
0.95
Brikama United
1.07

finishing

GAMTEL+0.00on par
Brikama United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GAMTEL ↓

Brikama United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

GAMTEL or draw
67%
GAMTEL or Brikama United
69%
Draw or Brikama United
64%

Winning margin

GAMTEL wins by 2+
14%
Brikama United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

GAMTEL 1+ goals
64%
GAMTEL 2+ goals
27%
GAMTEL 3+ goals
8%
Brikama United 1+ goals
62%
Brikama United 2+ goals
25%
Brikama United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

GAMTEL (draw refunded)
52%
Brikama United (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GAMTEL at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Brikama United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.07 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GAMTEL attack 0.95 + Brikama United defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Brikama United attack 0.97 + GAMTEL defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

GAMTEL scores more
36%
level
31%
Brikama United scores more
33%

GAMTEL at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "GAMTEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GAMTEL vs Brikama United

GAMTEL beat Brikama United 4-1 in GFA League on July 22, 2022.