Gamle Oslo 2–1 Mjøndalen II: Result & Stats

Gamle Oslo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Mjøndalen II

8/11/2024

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 16Vallhall Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gamle Oslo73%

×Draw14%

Mjøndalen II13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gamle OsloExpected goals in this matchMjøndalen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.08

1.24

Gamle Oslo

3.08

Mjøndalen II

1.24

Gamle Oslo creates 148% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.62

creates per match

0.85

1.62

allows per match

3.54

creates per match

Gamle Oslo

2.62

Mjøndalen II

0.85

allows per match

Gamle Oslo

1.62

Mjøndalen II

3.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gamle Oslo+0.00on par

Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamle Oslo ↓

Mjøndalen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Gamle Oslo or draw

87%

Gamle Oslo or Mjøndalen II

86%

Draw or Mjøndalen II

27%

Winning margin

Gamle Oslo wins by 2+

53%

Mjøndalen II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Gamle Oslo 1+ goals

95%

Gamle Oslo 2+ goals

81%

Gamle Oslo 3+ goals

58%

Mjøndalen II 1+ goals

71%

Mjøndalen II 2+ goals

35%

Mjøndalen II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gamle Oslo (draw refunded)

85%

Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamle Oslo at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamle Oslo attack 2.62 + Mjøndalen II defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 3.08

Mjøndalen II attack 0.85 + Gamle Oslo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Gamle Oslo scores more

73%

level

14%

Mjøndalen II scores more

13%

Gamle Oslo at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Gamle Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff