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Gamla Upsala W vs Uppsala W — Elitettan 2021

Gamla Upsala W
Gamla Upsala W
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Uppsala W
Uppsala W
5/24/2024ElitettanElitettan · Round 8Lötens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Gamla Upsala W25%
×Draw21%
Uppsala W54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gamla Upsala W
1.34
Uppsala W
2.07

Uppsala W creates 54% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 52 away

creates per match

Gamla Upsala W
1.67
Uppsala W
1.98

allows per match

Gamla Upsala W
2.16
Uppsala W
1.02

finishing

Gamla Upsala W+0.00on par
Uppsala W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamla Upsala W ↓

Uppsala W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Gamla Upsala W or draw
46%
Gamla Upsala W or Uppsala W
79%
Draw or Uppsala W
75%

Winning margin

Gamla Upsala W wins by 2+
10%
Uppsala W wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Gamla Upsala W 1+ goals
74%
Gamla Upsala W 2+ goals
39%
Gamla Upsala W 3+ goals
15%
Uppsala W 1+ goals
87%
Uppsala W 2+ goals
61%
Uppsala W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Gamla Upsala W (draw refunded)
31%
Uppsala W (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamla Upsala W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

Uppsala W away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.02 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamla Upsala W attack 1.67 + Uppsala W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.34

Uppsala W attack 1.98 + Gamla Upsala W defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gamla Upsala W scores more
25%
level
21%
Uppsala W scores more
54%

Uppsala W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Uppsala W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gamla Upsala W vs Uppsala W

Uppsala W beat Gamla Upsala W 6-1 in Elitettan on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Lötens IP in Uppsala.