Gamla Upsala W 2–0 Eskilstuna United W

Gamla Upsala W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Eskilstuna United W

I. Wixner 36'

S. Paulsson 30'

8/23/2024

Elitettan · Round 16Lötens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Gamla Upsala W34%

×Draw22%

Eskilstuna United W45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gamla Upsala WExpected goals in this matchEskilstuna United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.99

Gamla Upsala W

1.72

Eskilstuna United W

1.99

Eskilstuna United W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 39 away

1.67

creates per match

1.82

2.16

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Gamla Upsala W

1.67

Eskilstuna United W

1.82

allows per match

Gamla Upsala W

2.16

Eskilstuna United W

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gamla Upsala W+0.00on par

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamla Upsala W ↓

Eskilstuna United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Gamla Upsala W or draw

55%

Gamla Upsala W or Eskilstuna United W

78%

Draw or Eskilstuna United W

66%

Winning margin

Gamla Upsala W wins by 2+

17%

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Gamla Upsala W 1+ goals

82%

Gamla Upsala W 2+ goals

51%

Gamla Upsala W 3+ goals

25%

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

86%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

59%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Gamla Upsala W (draw refunded)

43%

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamla Upsala W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

Eskilstuna United W away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamla Upsala W attack 1.67 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.72

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.82 + Gamla Upsala W defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gamla Upsala W scores more

34%

level

22%

Eskilstuna United W scores more

45%

Eskilstuna United W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

S. Paulsson

34'

L. Strand

36'

I. Wixner

46'

K. Schotte← C. Thimstrand

63'

K. Collin← M. Selling

68'

I. Rydell← J. Sjösten

74'

T. Youhana← L. Hallin

78'

I. Rydell

89'

S. Munthe Nilsson

90+3'

T. Uppfeld← L. Strand

Gamla

Eskilstuna

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Bernhardsson

46'▲K. Schotte←▼C. Thimstrand

68'▲I. Rydell←▼J. Sjösten

90+3'▲T. Uppfeld←▼L. Strand

Gamla Upsala W substitutes

SchotteRydellUppfeldCarlssonErikssonLundinSterner

Manager: V. Barsley

63'▲K. Collin←▼M. Selling

74'▲T. Youhana←▼L. Hallin

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

CollinYouhanaWiklundBülowTilleniusHämäläinenMcAllister