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Gamla Upsala W vs Bollstanäs W — Elitettan 2021

Gamla Upsala W
Gamla Upsala W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Bollstanäs W
Bollstanäs W
9/8/2023ElitettanElitettan · Round 19Lötens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Gamla Upsala W44%
×Draw22%
Bollstanäs W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gamla Upsala W
1.94
Bollstanäs W
1.69

Gamla Upsala W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 52 away

creates per match

Gamla Upsala W
1.67
Bollstanäs W
1.21

allows per match

Gamla Upsala W
2.16
Bollstanäs W
2.21

finishing

Gamla Upsala W+0.00on par
Bollstanäs W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamla Upsala W ↓

Bollstanäs W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Gamla Upsala W or draw
66%
Gamla Upsala W or Bollstanäs W
78%
Draw or Bollstanäs W
56%

Winning margin

Gamla Upsala W wins by 2+
24%
Bollstanäs W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gamla Upsala W 1+ goals
86%
Gamla Upsala W 2+ goals
58%
Gamla Upsala W 3+ goals
30%
Bollstanäs W 1+ goals
82%
Bollstanäs W 2+ goals
50%
Bollstanäs W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Gamla Upsala W (draw refunded)
56%
Bollstanäs W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamla Upsala W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

Bollstanäs W away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.21 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamla Upsala W attack 1.67 + Bollstanäs W defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.94

Bollstanäs W attack 1.21 + Gamla Upsala W defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gamla Upsala W scores more
44%
level
22%
Bollstanäs W scores more
34%

Gamla Upsala W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gamla Upsala W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gamla Upsala W vs Bollstanäs W

Gamla Upsala W and Bollstanäs W drew 2-2 in Elitettan on September 8, 2023.

The match was played at Lötens IP in Uppsala.