Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gamla Upsala vs Fanna BK — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Gamla Upsala
Gamla Upsala
FT
0 – 1
Fanna BK
Fanna BK
6/17/2020Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 1Gamlis IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gamla Upsala57%
×Draw20%
Fanna BK23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gamla Upsala
2.35
Fanna BK
1.44

Gamla Upsala creates 63% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gamla Upsala
2.00
Fanna BK
1.29

allows per match

Gamla Upsala
1.59
Fanna BK
2.71

finishing

Gamla Upsala+0.00on par
Fanna BK+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamla Upsala ↓

Fanna BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Gamla Upsala or draw
77%
Gamla Upsala or Fanna BK
80%
Draw or Fanna BK
43%

Winning margin

Gamla Upsala wins by 2+
36%
Fanna BK wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gamla Upsala 1+ goals
90%
Gamla Upsala 2+ goals
68%
Gamla Upsala 3+ goals
41%
Fanna BK 1+ goals
76%
Fanna BK 2+ goals
42%
Fanna BK 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gamla Upsala (draw refunded)
71%
Fanna BK (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamla Upsala at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

Fanna BK away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamla Upsala attack 2.00 + Fanna BK defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.35

Fanna BK attack 1.29 + Gamla Upsala defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gamla Upsala scores more
57%
level
20%
Fanna BK scores more
23%

Gamla Upsala at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gamla Upsala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gamla Upsala vs Fanna BK

Fanna BK beat Gamla Upsala 1-0 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on June 17, 2020.

The match was played at Gamlis IP in Uppsala.