Gambia 8–1 Seychelles: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Gambia

FT

8 – 1

Seychelles

9/4/2021

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Stade Omnisports de Malouzini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gambia85%

×Draw11%

Seychelles4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GambiaExpected goals in this matchSeychelles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.95

0.55

Gambia

2.95

Seychelles

0.55

Gambia creates 436% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

3.33

creates per match

0.43

0.67

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Gambia

3.33

Seychelles

0.43

allows per match

Gambia

0.67

Seychelles

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gambia+0.00on par

Seychelles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gambia ↓

Seychelles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Gambia or draw

96%

Gambia or Seychelles

89%

Draw or Seychelles

15%

Winning margin

Gambia wins by 2+

66%

Seychelles wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Gambia 1+ goals

95%

Gambia 2+ goals

79%

Gambia 3+ goals

55%

Seychelles 1+ goals

42%

Seychelles 2+ goals

11%

Seychelles 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Gambia (draw refunded)

95%

Seychelles (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gambia at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Seychelles away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gambia attack 3.33 + Seychelles defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.95

Seychelles attack 0.43 + Gambia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Gambia scores more

85%

level

11%

Seychelles scores more

4%

Gambia at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Gambia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff