Gamba Osaka 2–0 Mito Hollyhock: Result & Stats

Gamba Osaka

FT

2 – 0

Mito Hollyhock

1/21/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Gosamaru Athletic Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gamba Osaka57%

×Draw20%

Mito Hollyhock23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gamba OsakaExpected goals in this matchMito Hollyhock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.43

Gamba Osaka

2.33

Mito Hollyhock

1.43

Gamba Osaka creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.40

creates per match

1.25

1.60

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Gamba Osaka

2.40

Mito Hollyhock

1.25

allows per match

Gamba Osaka

1.60

Mito Hollyhock

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gamba Osaka+0.00on par

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamba Osaka ↓

Mito Hollyhock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Gamba Osaka or draw

77%

Gamba Osaka or Mito Hollyhock

80%

Draw or Mito Hollyhock

43%

Winning margin

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+

36%

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals

90%

Gamba Osaka 2+ goals

67%

Gamba Osaka 3+ goals

41%

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals

76%

Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals

42%

Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)

71%

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamba Osaka at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Mito Hollyhock away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamba Osaka attack 2.40 + Mito Hollyhock defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.33

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.25 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gamba Osaka scores more

57%

level

20%

Mito Hollyhock scores more

23%

Gamba Osaka at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff