Gamba Osaka 3–1 Kawasaki Frontale: Result & Stats

Gamba Osaka

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kawasaki Frontale

S. Kurata 81'

S. Fukuoka 70'

S. Nakatani 28'

Y. Segawa 25'

5/19/2024

J1 League · Round 15Panasonic Stadium Suita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Gamba Osaka42%

×Draw25%

Kawasaki Frontale32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gamba OsakaExpected goals in this matchKawasaki Frontale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.25

Gamba Osaka

1.48

Kawasaki Frontale

1.25

Gamba Osaka creates 18% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 23 away

1.63

creates per match

1.47

1.02

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Gamba Osaka

1.63

Kawasaki Frontale

1.47

allows per match

Gamba Osaka

1.02

Kawasaki Frontale

1.33

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Gamba Osaka+0.07on par

Kawasaki Frontale+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamba Osaka ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gamba Osaka or draw

68%

Gamba Osaka or Kawasaki Frontale

75%

Draw or Kawasaki Frontale

58%

Winning margin

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+

21%

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals

77%

Gamba Osaka 2+ goals

43%

Gamba Osaka 3+ goals

19%

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

71%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

36%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)

57%

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamba Osaka at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.02 · 27 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamba Osaka attack 1.63 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.47 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gamba Osaka scores more

42%

level

25%

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

32%

Gamba Osaka at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

T. Usami

Gamba Osaka · F

8.3

Match Events

25'

Y. Segawa↳ A. Ienaga

28'

S. Nakatani↳ T. Usami

38'

S. van Wermeskerken← Y. Segawa

47'

Sai Van Wermeskerken

60'

T. Seko← D. Tono

67'

Erison← B. Gomis

67'

S. Yamada← Marcinho

70'

S. Fukuoka↳ T. Usami

77'

Dawhan← N. Lavi

77'

Zé Ricardo← T. Ominami

77'

K. Takai← Jesiel

78'

S. Kurata← Welton Felipe

81'

S. Kurata↳ R. Yamashita

85'

S. Nakano← R. Yamashita

85'

I. Jebali← T. Usami

90+2'

S. Toyama← I. Sakamoto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GambaKawasaki

Overview

40%Possession60%

7Total Shots17

1.18Expected Goals (xG)2.36

3Corners7

15Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots17

5On Target6

2Off Target6

0Blocked5

4Inside Box11

3Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

412Total Passes613

328Accurate Passes526

80%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2