Gamba Osaka 3–1 Eastern: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Gamba Osaka

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Eastern

9/17/2025

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Panasonic Stadium Suita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gamba Osaka72%

×Draw16%

Eastern12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gamba OsakaExpected goals in this matchEastern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

0.92

Gamba Osaka

2.53

Eastern

0.92

Gamba Osaka creates 175% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.83

creates per match

1.00

0.83

allows per match

3.22

creates per match

Gamba Osaka

1.83

Eastern

1.00

allows per match

Gamba Osaka

0.83

Eastern

3.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gamba Osaka+0.00on par

Eastern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamba Osaka ↓

Eastern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Gamba Osaka or draw

88%

Gamba Osaka or Eastern

84%

Draw or Eastern

28%

Winning margin

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+

50%

Eastern wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals

92%

Gamba Osaka 2+ goals

71%

Gamba Osaka 3+ goals

46%

Eastern 1+ goals

60%

Eastern 2+ goals

23%

Eastern 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)

86%

Eastern (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamba Osaka at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Eastern away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamba Osaka attack 1.83 + Eastern defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.53

Eastern attack 1.00 + Gamba Osaka defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Gamba Osaka scores more

72%

level

16%

Eastern scores more

12%

Gamba Osaka at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff