Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gama vs Tupynambás — Serie D 2018

Gama
Gama
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Tupynambás
Tupynambás
10/31/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 10Estádio Walmir Campelo Bezerra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gama49%
×Draw24%
Tupynambás28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gama
1.74
Tupynambás
1.25

Gama creates 39% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

creates per match

Gama
2.10
Tupynambás
1.50

allows per match

Gama
1.00
Tupynambás
1.38

finishing

Gama+0.00on par
Tupynambás+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gama ↓

Tupynambás →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gama or draw
72%
Gama or Tupynambás
76%
Draw or Tupynambás
51%

Winning margin

Gama wins by 2+
26%
Tupynambás wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gama 1+ goals
82%
Gama 2+ goals
52%
Gama 3+ goals
25%
Tupynambás 1+ goals
71%
Tupynambás 2+ goals
36%
Tupynambás 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gama (draw refunded)
64%
Tupynambás (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gama at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Tupynambás away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gama attack 2.10 + Tupynambás defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.74

Tupynambás attack 1.50 + Gama defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gama scores more
49%
level
24%
Tupynambás scores more
28%

Gama at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gama vs Tupynambás

Tupynambás beat Gama 3-1 in Serie D on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Walmir Campelo Bezerra in Gama, Distrito Federal.