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Gama vs Sámano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Gama
Gama
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sámano
Sámano
10/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Estadio Santa María

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Gama35%
×Draw27%
Sámano39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gama
1.23
Sámano
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 91 away

creates per match

Gama
1.00
Sámano
1.09

allows per match

Gama
1.53
Sámano
1.45

finishing

Gama+0.00on par
Sámano+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gama ↓

Sámano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gama or draw
61%
Gama or Sámano
73%
Draw or Sámano
65%

Winning margin

Gama wins by 2+
15%
Sámano wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gama 1+ goals
71%
Gama 2+ goals
35%
Gama 3+ goals
13%
Sámano 1+ goals
73%
Sámano 2+ goals
38%
Sámano 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gama (draw refunded)
47%
Sámano (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gama at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

Sámano away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gama attack 1.00 + Sámano defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sámano attack 1.09 + Gama defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gama scores more
35%
level
27%
Sámano scores more
39%

Sámano at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sámano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gama 0 – 0 Sámano

Gama and Sámano drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Santa María in Bárcena de Cicero.