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Gama vs Cartes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Gama
Gama
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cartes
Cartes
9/18/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Estadio Santa María

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Gama44%
×Draw27%
Cartes29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gama
1.39
Cartes
1.09

Gama creates 28% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 91 away

creates per match

Gama
1.00
Cartes
0.66

allows per match

Gama
1.53
Cartes
1.77

finishing

Gama+0.00on par
Cartes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gama ↓

Cartes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gama or draw
71%
Gama or Cartes
73%
Draw or Cartes
56%

Winning margin

Gama wins by 2+
21%
Cartes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gama 1+ goals
75%
Gama 2+ goals
40%
Gama 3+ goals
16%
Cartes 1+ goals
66%
Cartes 2+ goals
30%
Cartes 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gama (draw refunded)
60%
Cartes (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gama at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

Cartes away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.77 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gama attack 1.00 + Cartes defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

Cartes attack 0.66 + Gama defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gama scores more
44%
level
27%
Cartes scores more
29%

Gama at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gama vs Cartes

Gama and Cartes drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Santa María in Bárcena de Cicero.