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Gama vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Gama
Gama
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
10/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Estadio Santa María

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Gama30%
×Draw25%
Atlético Albericia45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gama
1.22
Atlético Albericia
1.55

Atlético Albericia creates 27% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 108 away

creates per match

Gama
1.00
Atlético Albericia
1.57

allows per match

Gama
1.53
Atlético Albericia
1.44

finishing

Gama+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gama ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gama or draw
55%
Gama or Atlético Albericia
75%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
70%

Winning margin

Gama wins by 2+
12%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Gama 1+ goals
70%
Gama 2+ goals
34%
Gama 3+ goals
12%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
46%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gama (draw refunded)
40%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gama at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gama attack 1.00 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Gama defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gama scores more
30%
level
25%
Atlético Albericia scores more
45%

Atlético Albericia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gama vs Atlético Albericia

Gama beat Atlético Albericia 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Santa María in Bárcena de Cicero.