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Galway United W vs Treaty Utd W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Galway United W
Galway United Wadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Treaty Utd W
Treaty Utd W
J. Slattery 54' (pen)
6/29/2024All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Quarter-finalsEamonn Deacy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Galway United W66%
×Draw21%
Treaty Utd W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galway United W
1.92
Treaty Utd W
0.71

Galway United W creates 170% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Galway United W
2.27
Treaty Utd W
0.86

allows per match

Galway United W
0.55
Treaty Utd W
1.57

finishing

Galway United W+0.00on par
Treaty Utd W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galway United W ↓

Treaty Utd W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Galway United W or draw
87%
Galway United W or Treaty Utd W
79%
Draw or Treaty Utd W
34%

Winning margin

Galway United W wins by 2+
40%
Treaty Utd W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Galway United W 1+ goals
85%
Galway United W 2+ goals
57%
Galway United W 3+ goals
30%
Treaty Utd W 1+ goals
51%
Treaty Utd W 2+ goals
16%
Treaty Utd W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Galway United W (draw refunded)
83%
Treaty Utd W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galway United W at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Treaty Utd W away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galway United W attack 2.27 + Treaty Utd W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.92

Treaty Utd W attack 0.86 + Galway United W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Galway United W scores more
66%
level
21%
Treaty Utd W scores more
13%

Galway United W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Galway United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
54'
J. SlatteryPenalty
60'
65'
85'
A. Madden← A. Madden
85'
A. Callanan← A. Callanan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Galway United W vs Treaty Utd W

Galway United W beat Treaty Utd W 1-0 in All-Island Cup - Women on June 29, 2024.

Goals: J. Slattery (54' pen).

The match was played at Eamonn Deacy Park in Galway.