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Galway United W vs Glentoran BU W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Galway United W
Galway United W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Glentoran BU W
Glentoran BU W
E. Dossen 90'
J. Slattery 84'
E. Kavanagh 81'
K. Thompson 11'
4/20/2024All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 2Eamonn Deacy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Galway United W40%
×Draw22%
Glentoran BU W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galway United W
1.89
Glentoran BU W
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Galway United W
2.27
Glentoran BU W
3.17

allows per match

Galway United W
0.55
Glentoran BU W
1.50

finishing

Galway United W+0.00on par
Glentoran BU W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galway United W ↓

Glentoran BU W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Galway United W or draw
61%
Galway United W or Glentoran BU W
78%
Draw or Glentoran BU W
60%

Winning margin

Galway United W wins by 2+
21%
Glentoran BU W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Galway United W 1+ goals
85%
Galway United W 2+ goals
56%
Galway United W 3+ goals
29%
Glentoran BU W 1+ goals
84%
Glentoran BU W 2+ goals
55%
Glentoran BU W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Galway United W (draw refunded)
51%
Glentoran BU W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galway United W at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Glentoran BU W away — creates 3.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galway United W attack 2.27 + Glentoran BU W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.89

Glentoran BU W attack 3.17 + Galway United W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Galway United W scores more
40%
level
22%
Glentoran BU W scores more
39%

Galway United W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Galway United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
K. Thompson
81'
E. Kavanagh
84'
J. Slattery
90'
E. Dossen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

All-Island Cup - Women: Galway United W 4–0 Glentoran BU W

Galway United W beat Glentoran BU W 4-0 in All-Island Cup - Women on April 20, 2024.

Goals: K. Thompson (11'), E. Kavanagh (81'), J. Slattery (84'), E. Dossen (90').

The match was played at Eamonn Deacy Park in Galway.