Galway United W 2–0 DLR Waves W: Result & Stats

Galway United W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

DLR Waves W

A. Donnelly 65'

L. McKey 16'

5/30/2026

All-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Galway United W83%

×Draw12%

DLR Waves W5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Galway United WExpected goals in this matchDLR Waves W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

0.53

Galway United W

2.72

DLR Waves W

0.53

Galway United W creates 413% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

2.27

creates per match

0.50

0.55

allows per match

3.17

creates per match

Galway United W

2.27

DLR Waves W

0.50

allows per match

Galway United W

0.55

DLR Waves W

3.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galway United W+0.00on par

DLR Waves W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galway United W ↓

DLR Waves W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Galway United W or draw

95%

Galway United W or DLR Waves W

88%

Draw or DLR Waves W

17%

Winning margin

Galway United W wins by 2+

62%

DLR Waves W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Galway United W 1+ goals

93%

Galway United W 2+ goals

75%

Galway United W 3+ goals

50%

DLR Waves W 1+ goals

41%

DLR Waves W 2+ goals

10%

DLR Waves W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Galway United W (draw refunded)

94%

DLR Waves W (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galway United W at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

DLR Waves W away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galway United W attack 2.27 + DLR Waves W defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.72

DLR Waves W attack 0.50 + Galway United W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Galway United W scores more

83%

level

12%

DLR Waves W scores more

5%

Galway United W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Galway United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

L. McKey

65'

A. Donnelly

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff