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Galway United W vs Cork City W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Galway United W
Galway United W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cork City W
Cork City W
I. Beletic 45+3'
A. Smith 7'
6/7/2025All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 3Moyne Villa Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Galway United W64%
×Draw20%
Cork City W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galway United W
2.08
Cork City W
0.90

Galway United W creates 131% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Galway United W
2.27
Cork City W
1.25

allows per match

Galway United W
0.55
Cork City W
1.88

finishing

Galway United W+0.00on par
Cork City W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galway United W ↓

Cork City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Galway United W or draw
85%
Galway United W or Cork City W
80%
Draw or Cork City W
36%

Winning margin

Galway United W wins by 2+
40%
Cork City W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Galway United W 1+ goals
87%
Galway United W 2+ goals
61%
Galway United W 3+ goals
34%
Cork City W 1+ goals
59%
Cork City W 2+ goals
23%
Cork City W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Galway United W (draw refunded)
81%
Cork City W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galway United W at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Cork City W away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galway United W attack 2.27 + Cork City W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.08

Cork City W attack 1.25 + Galway United W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Galway United W scores more
64%
level
20%
Cork City W scores more
15%

Galway United W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Galway United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
A. Smith
45+3'
I. Beletic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Galway United W vs Cork City W

Galway United W beat Cork City W 2-0 in All-Island Cup - Women on June 7, 2025.

Goals: A. Smith (7'), I. Beletic (45+3').

The match was played at Moyne Villa Field in Headford.