Galway United 3–0 Treaty United: Result & Stats

Galway United

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Treaty United

8/7/2023

First Division · Round 26Eamonn Deacy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Galway United51%

×Draw25%

Treaty United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Galway UnitedExpected goals in this matchTreaty United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.04

Galway United

1.61

Treaty United

1.04

Galway United creates 55% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 99 away

1.85

creates per match

1.13

0.95

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Galway United

1.85

Treaty United

1.13

allows per match

Galway United

0.95

Treaty United

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galway United+0.00on par

Treaty United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galway United ↓

Treaty United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Galway United or draw

75%

Galway United or Treaty United

75%

Draw or Treaty United

49%

Winning margin

Galway United wins by 2+

27%

Treaty United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Galway United 1+ goals

80%

Galway United 2+ goals

48%

Galway United 3+ goals

22%

Treaty United 1+ goals

65%

Treaty United 2+ goals

28%

Treaty United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Galway United (draw refunded)

67%

Treaty United (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galway United at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Treaty United away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galway United attack 1.85 + Treaty United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.61

Treaty United attack 1.13 + Galway United defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Galway United scores more

51%

level

25%

Treaty United scores more

25%

Galway United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Galway United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff