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Galway United vs Limerick — First Division 2019

Galway United
Galway United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Limerick
Limerick
4/5/2019First DivisionFirst Division · Round 7Eamonn Deacy Park (Galway)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Galway United61%
×Draw22%
Limerick17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galway United
1.93
Limerick
0.90

Galway United creates 114% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 13 away

creates per match

Galway United
1.85
Limerick
0.85

allows per match

Galway United
0.95
Limerick
2.00

finishing

Galway United+0.00on par
Limerick+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galway United ↓

Limerick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Galway United or draw
83%
Galway United or Limerick
78%
Draw or Limerick
39%

Winning margin

Galway United wins by 2+
37%
Limerick wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Galway United 1+ goals
85%
Galway United 2+ goals
57%
Galway United 3+ goals
30%
Limerick 1+ goals
59%
Limerick 2+ goals
23%
Limerick 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Galway United (draw refunded)
78%
Limerick (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galway United at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Limerick away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galway United attack 1.85 + Limerick defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Limerick attack 0.85 + Galway United defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Galway United scores more
61%
level
22%
Limerick scores more
17%

Galway United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Galway United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Galway United 0–1 Limerick

Limerick beat Galway United 1-0 in First Division on April 5, 2019.

The match was played at Eamonn Deacy Park (Galway).