Galway United 0–1 Drogheda United: Result & Stats

Galway United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Drogheda United

2/6/2026

Premier Division · Round 1Eamonn Deacy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Galway United47%

×Draw26%

Drogheda United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Galway UnitedExpected goals in this matchDrogheda United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.08

Galway United

1.50

Drogheda United

1.08

Galway United creates 39% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 103 away

1.26

creates per match

1.01

1.15

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Galway United

1.26

Drogheda United

1.01

allows per match

Galway United

1.15

Drogheda United

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galway United+0.00on par

Drogheda United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galway United ↓

Drogheda United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Galway United or draw

73%

Galway United or Drogheda United

74%

Draw or Drogheda United

53%

Winning margin

Galway United wins by 2+

23%

Drogheda United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Galway United 1+ goals

78%

Galway United 2+ goals

44%

Galway United 3+ goals

19%

Drogheda United 1+ goals

66%

Drogheda United 2+ goals

29%

Drogheda United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Galway United (draw refunded)

63%

Drogheda United (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galway United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

Drogheda United away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.75 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galway United attack 1.26 + Drogheda United defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Drogheda United attack 1.01 + Galway United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Galway United scores more

47%

level

26%

Drogheda United scores more

27%

Galway United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Galway United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff