Galway United 1–2 Bohemians: Result & Stats

Galway United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bohemians

M. Dyer 43'

S. Grehan 90', 59'

5/5/2025

Premier Division · Round 14Eamonn Deacy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Galway United37%

×Draw28%

Bohemians35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Galway UnitedExpected goals in this matchBohemians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.13

Galway United

1.16

Bohemians

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 127 away

1.26

creates per match

1.11

1.15

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Galway United

1.26

Bohemians

1.11

allows per match

Galway United

1.15

Bohemians

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galway United+0.00on par

Bohemians+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galway United ↓

Bohemians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Galway United or draw

65%

Galway United or Bohemians

72%

Draw or Bohemians

63%

Winning margin

Galway United wins by 2+

15%

Bohemians wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Galway United 1+ goals

69%

Galway United 2+ goals

32%

Galway United 3+ goals

11%

Bohemians 1+ goals

68%

Bohemians 2+ goals

31%

Bohemians 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Galway United (draw refunded)

51%

Bohemians (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galway United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

Bohemians away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.05 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galway United attack 1.26 + Bohemians defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bohemians attack 1.11 + Galway United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Galway United scores more

37%

level

28%

Bohemians scores more

35%

Galway United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Galway United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

S. Grehan

Bohemians · D

9.3

Match Events

41'

43'

45'

46'

46'

R. Cornwall← J. Mountney

59'

S. Grehan↳ D. Rooney

65'

R. Donelon← C. Horgan

65'

S. Kerrigan← B. Burns

66'

C. Whelan← J. McManus

67'

Jordan Flores

71'

K. Buckley← J. Flores

81'

Regan Donelon

83'

R. Brennan← R. Tierney

90'

S. Grehan↳ D. Rooney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GalwayBohemians

Overview

41%Possession59%

18Total Shots18

2Corners14

10Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots18

10On Target8

4Off Target7

4Blocked3

18Inside Box12

0Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

283Total Passes404

165Accurate Passes304

58%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

6Saves9

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Premier Division: Galway United 1–2 Bohemians

Bohemians beat Galway United 2-1 in Premier Division on May 5, 2025.

Goals: M. Dyer (43'), S. Grehan (59', 90').

Bohemians controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 18.

The match was played at Eamonn Deacy Park in Galway.

Galway United vs Bohemians — Premier Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier Division: Galway United 1–2 Bohemians