Galvez 2–3 Real Desportivo Ariquemes

Galvez

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Real Desportivo Ariquemes

5/4/2019

Serie D · Round 1Arena da Floresta (Rio Branco, Acre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Galvez60%

×Draw20%

Real Desportivo Ariquemes20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalvezExpected goals in this matchReal Desportivo Ariquemes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.27

Galvez

2.29

Real Desportivo Ariquemes

1.27

Galvez creates 80% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

1.72

creates per match

0.73

1.80

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Galvez

1.72

Real Desportivo Ariquemes

0.73

allows per match

Galvez

1.80

Real Desportivo Ariquemes

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galvez+0.00on par

Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galvez ↓

Real Desportivo Ariquemes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Galvez or draw

80%

Galvez or Real Desportivo Ariquemes

80%

Draw or Real Desportivo Ariquemes

40%

Winning margin

Galvez wins by 2+

38%

Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Galvez 1+ goals

90%

Galvez 2+ goals

66%

Galvez 3+ goals

40%

Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals

72%

Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals

36%

Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Galvez (draw refunded)

75%

Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galvez at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galvez attack 1.72 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.29

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.73 + Galvez defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Galvez scores more

60%

level

20%

Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more

20%

Galvez at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Galvez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff