Galvez 1–3 Peñarol: Result & Stats | Serie D

Galvez

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Peñarol

Alesson 48' (pen)

Railson 75'

Alex Flávio 22'

Diego Vitor 4'

8/15/2021

Serie D · Round 11Arena Acreana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Galvez40%

×Draw24%

Peñarol36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalvezExpected goals in this matchPeñarol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.52

Galvez

1.61

Peñarol

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 8 away

1.72

creates per match

1.25

1.80

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Galvez

1.72

Peñarol

1.25

allows per match

Galvez

1.80

Peñarol

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galvez+0.00on par

Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galvez ↓

Peñarol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Galvez or draw

64%

Galvez or Peñarol

76%

Draw or Peñarol

60%

Winning margin

Galvez wins by 2+

20%

Peñarol wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Galvez 1+ goals

80%

Galvez 2+ goals

48%

Galvez 3+ goals

22%

Peñarol 1+ goals

78%

Peñarol 2+ goals

45%

Peñarol 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Galvez (draw refunded)

53%

Peñarol (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galvez at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

Peñarol away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galvez attack 1.72 + Peñarol defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.61

Peñarol attack 1.25 + Galvez defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Galvez scores more

40%

level

24%

Peñarol scores more

36%

Galvez at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Galvez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Diego Vitor

22'

Alex Flávio

28'

Bruno← Sidney da Silva

38'

Radames

46'

Felipe← Matheus Morais

46'

Raylson← Ryan

48'

AlessonPenalty

59'

Neto← Geovani

59'

Wanderson← Alesson

61'

Rodriguinho← Gleison Ferreira

61'

Maranhão← Wallace

71'

Donavan← Diego Vitor

71'

Marcelo Cardoso← Pedrinho

75'

Railson

86'

Eduardo← Wanderson

Galvez

Peñarol

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Alesson

Manager: Celio

46'▲Felipe←▼Matheus Morais

46'▲Raylson←▼Ryan

59'▲Neto←▼Geovani

59'▲Wanderson←▼Alesson

86'▲Eduardo←▼Wanderson

Galvez substitutes

FelipeRaylsonNetoWandersonEduardoEdivandroFranklinGiovani

Manager: Vagner Dos Santos

28'▲Bruno←▼Sidney da Silva

61'▲Rodriguinho←▼Gleison Ferreira

61'▲Maranhão←▼Wallace

71'▲Donavan←▼Diego Vitor

71'▲Marcelo Cardoso←▼Pedrinho

Peñarol substitutes

BrunoRodriguinhoMaranhãoDonavanCardosoMatheus