Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Galvez vs Independente PA — Serie D 2026

Galvez
Galvez
FT
7 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Independente PA
Independente PA
11/21/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 13Arena Acreana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Galvez52%
×Draw22%
Independente PA26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galvez
2.04
Independente PA
1.40

Galvez creates 46% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 11 away

creates per match

Galvez
1.72
Independente PA
1.00

allows per match

Galvez
1.80
Independente PA
2.36

finishing

Galvez+0.00on par
Independente PA+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galvez ↓

Independente PA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Galvez or draw
74%
Galvez or Independente PA
78%
Draw or Independente PA
48%

Winning margin

Galvez wins by 2+
30%
Independente PA wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Galvez 1+ goals
87%
Galvez 2+ goals
60%
Galvez 3+ goals
33%
Independente PA 1+ goals
75%
Independente PA 2+ goals
41%
Independente PA 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Galvez (draw refunded)
66%
Independente PA (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galvez at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

Independente PA away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galvez attack 1.72 + Independente PA defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.04

Independente PA attack 1.00 + Galvez defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Galvez scores more
52%
level
22%
Independente PA scores more
26%

Galvez at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Galvez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Galvez 7–1 Independente PA

Galvez beat Independente PA 7-1 in Serie D on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Arena Acreana in Rio Branco, Acre.