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Galvez vs Humaitá — League #520 2026

Galvez
Galvez
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Humaitá
Humaitá
A. Lima 39'
2/14/2026League #520League #520 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Galvez29%
×Draw24%
Humaitá47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galvez
1.26
Humaitá
1.69

Humaitá creates 34% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

creates per match

Galvez
1.34
Humaitá
2.23

allows per match

Galvez
1.14
Humaitá
1.18

finishing

Galvez+0.00on par
Humaitá+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galvez ↓

Humaitá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Galvez or draw
53%
Galvez or Humaitá
76%
Draw or Humaitá
71%

Winning margin

Galvez wins by 2+
12%
Humaitá wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Galvez 1+ goals
72%
Galvez 2+ goals
36%
Galvez 3+ goals
13%
Humaitá 1+ goals
82%
Humaitá 2+ goals
50%
Humaitá 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Galvez (draw refunded)
38%
Humaitá (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galvez at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.14 · 29 matches

Humaitá away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galvez attack 1.34 + Humaitá defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.26

Humaitá attack 2.23 + Galvez defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Galvez scores more
29%
level
24%
Humaitá scores more
47%

Humaitá at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Humaitá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
A. Lima
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #520: Galvez 0–1 Humaitá

Humaitá beat Galvez 1-0 in League #520 on February 14, 2026.

Goals: A. Lima (39').