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Galícia vs SSA — Baiano - 2 2019

Galícia
Galícia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SSA
SSA
7/3/2024Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 7Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Galícia29%
×Draw31%
SSA39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galícia
0.88
SSA
1.07

SSA creates 22% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

creates per match

Galícia
0.90
SSA
1.14

allows per match

Galícia
1.00
SSA
0.86

finishing

Galícia+0.00on par
SSA+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galícia ↓

SSA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Galícia or draw
61%
Galícia or SSA
69%
Draw or SSA
71%

Winning margin

Galícia wins by 2+
10%
SSA wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Galícia 1+ goals
59%
Galícia 2+ goals
22%
Galícia 3+ goals
6%
SSA 1+ goals
66%
SSA 2+ goals
29%
SSA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Galícia (draw refunded)
43%
SSA (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galícia at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

SSA away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galícia attack 0.90 + SSA defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

SSA attack 1.14 + Galícia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Galícia scores more
29%
level
31%
SSA scores more
39%

SSA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Galícia vs SSA

Galícia and SSA drew 0-0 in Baiano - 2 on July 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos in Salvador de Bahia, Bahia.