Galícia 2–2 Juazeiro BA: Result & Stats

Galícia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Juazeiro BA

5/20/2023

Baiano - 2 · Round 2Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Galícia35%

×Draw34%

Juazeiro BA31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalíciaExpected goals in this matchJuazeiro BA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.83

Galícia

0.90

Juazeiro BA

0.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

0.90

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Galícia

0.90

Juazeiro BA

0.67

allows per match

Galícia

1.00

Juazeiro BA

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galícia+0.00on par

Juazeiro BA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galícia ↓

Juazeiro BA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Galícia or draw

69%

Galícia or Juazeiro BA

66%

Draw or Juazeiro BA

65%

Winning margin

Galícia wins by 2+

12%

Juazeiro BA wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Galícia 1+ goals

59%

Galícia 2+ goals

23%

Galícia 3+ goals

6%

Juazeiro BA 1+ goals

56%

Juazeiro BA 2+ goals

20%

Juazeiro BA 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Galícia (draw refunded)

53%

Juazeiro BA (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galícia at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Juazeiro BA away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galícia attack 0.90 + Juazeiro BA defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Juazeiro BA attack 0.67 + Galícia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Galícia scores more

35%

level

34%

Juazeiro BA scores more

31%

Galícia at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Galícia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff