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Galícia vs Grapiuna Itabuna — Baiano - 2 2019

Galícia
Galícia
FT
0 – 0
Grapiuna Itabuna
Grapiuna Itabuna
6/4/2023Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 4Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Galícia42%
×Draw30%
Grapiuna Itabuna29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galícia
1.18
Grapiuna Itabuna
0.93

Galícia creates 27% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

creates per match

Galícia
0.90
Grapiuna Itabuna
0.85

allows per match

Galícia
1.00
Grapiuna Itabuna
1.46

finishing

Galícia+0.00on par
Grapiuna Itabuna+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galícia ↓

Grapiuna Itabuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Galícia or draw
71%
Galícia or Grapiuna Itabuna
70%
Draw or Grapiuna Itabuna
58%

Winning margin

Galícia wins by 2+
18%
Grapiuna Itabuna wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Galícia 1+ goals
69%
Galícia 2+ goals
33%
Galícia 3+ goals
12%
Grapiuna Itabuna 1+ goals
61%
Grapiuna Itabuna 2+ goals
24%
Grapiuna Itabuna 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Galícia (draw refunded)
59%
Grapiuna Itabuna (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galícia at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Grapiuna Itabuna away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galícia attack 0.90 + Grapiuna Itabuna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Grapiuna Itabuna attack 0.85 + Galícia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Galícia scores more
42%
level
30%
Grapiuna Itabuna scores more
29%

Galícia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Galícia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Galícia 0–0 Grapiuna Itabuna

Galícia and Grapiuna Itabuna drew 0-0 in Baiano - 2 on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos in Salvador de Bahia, Bahia.