Galaxy 1–1 Etoile DU Sahel: Result & Stats

Galaxy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Etoile DU Sahel

T. Sesinyi 90+1'

S. Coulibaly 14'

2/19/2022

CAF Champions League · Group C - 2Francistown Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Galaxy36%

×Draw31%

Etoile DU Sahel33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalaxyExpected goals in this matchEtoile DU Sahel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.97

Galaxy

1.03

Etoile DU Sahel

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

0.86

creates per match

0.87

1.07

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Galaxy

0.86

Etoile DU Sahel

0.87

allows per match

Galaxy

1.07

Etoile DU Sahel

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galaxy+0.00on par

Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galaxy ↓

Etoile DU Sahel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Galaxy or draw

67%

Galaxy or Etoile DU Sahel

69%

Draw or Etoile DU Sahel

64%

Winning margin

Galaxy wins by 2+

14%

Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Galaxy 1+ goals

64%

Galaxy 2+ goals

28%

Galaxy 3+ goals

9%

Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals

62%

Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals

25%

Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Galaxy (draw refunded)

52%

Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galaxy at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Etoile DU Sahel away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galaxy attack 0.86 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Etoile DU Sahel attack 0.87 + Galaxy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Galaxy scores more

36%

level

31%

Etoile DU Sahel scores more

33%

Galaxy at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Galaxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

S. Kabugo

Galaxy · D

7.5

Match Events

13'

Gape Mohutsiwa

14'

S. Coulibaly↳ Y. Laouafi

45'

Ghofrane Naouali

51'

Tshephang Boithatelo

54'

T. Dhladhla← T. Boithatelo

55'

Iheb Msakni

55'

R. Thatanyane← L. Mokoena

64'

Y. Amri← A. Wayo

74'

O. Abid← I. Msakni

74'

V. Kombe← S. Coulibaly

79'

M. Kgomo← G. Baruti

85'

A. Jemal← A. Mathlouthi

85'

B. Jemmali← M. Dhaoui

90+1'

T. Sesinyi↳ M. Sechele

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GalaxyEtoile

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots13

1Corners4

22Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots13

2On Target3

7Off Target8

1Blocked2

5Inside Box3

5Outside Box10

Passing

50%Possession50%

370Total Passes361

248Accurate Passes239

67%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

22Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1