Galatasaray 0–0 Yeni Malatyaspor: Result & Stats

Galatasaray

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Yeni Malatyaspor

4/2/2019

Türkiye Kupası · Semi-finalsTürk Telekom Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Galatasaray59%

×Draw22%

Yeni Malatyaspor19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalatasarayExpected goals in this matchYeni Malatyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.00

Galatasaray

1.93

Yeni Malatyaspor

1.00

Galatasaray creates 93% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

1.86

creates per match

0.86

1.14

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Galatasaray

1.86

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.86

allows per match

Galatasaray

1.14

Yeni Malatyaspor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw

81%

Galatasaray or Yeni Malatyaspor

78%

Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor

41%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+

35%

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals

85%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

57%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

30%

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

63%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

26%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

75%

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 1.86 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.86 + Galatasaray defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Galatasaray scores more

59%

level

22%

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

19%

Galatasaray at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff