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Galatasaray vs Ofspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Galatasaray
Galatasaray
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ofspor
Ofspor
11/8/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundNEF Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Galatasaray52%
×Draw24%
Ofspor24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galatasaray
1.68
Ofspor
1.07

Galatasaray creates 57% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 4 away

creates per match

Galatasaray
1.86
Ofspor
1.00

allows per match

Galatasaray
1.14
Ofspor
1.50

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par
Ofspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Ofspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw
76%
Galatasaray or Ofspor
76%
Draw or Ofspor
48%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+
28%
Ofspor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals
81%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
50%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
24%
Ofspor 1+ goals
66%
Ofspor 2+ goals
29%
Ofspor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)
68%
Ofspor (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Ofspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 1.86 + Ofspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Ofspor attack 1.00 + Galatasaray defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Galatasaray scores more
52%
level
24%
Ofspor scores more
24%

Galatasaray at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Galatasaray vs Ofspor

Galatasaray beat Ofspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 8, 2022.

The match was played at NEF Stadyumu in İstanbul.