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Galatasaray vs Hatayspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Galatasaray
Galatasarayadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hatayspor
Hatayspor
2/6/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · Quarter-finalsTürk Telekom Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Galatasaray48%
×Draw26%
Hatayspor27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galatasaray
1.53
Hatayspor
1.07

Galatasaray creates 43% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 5 away

creates per match

Galatasaray
1.86
Hatayspor
1.00

allows per match

Galatasaray
1.14
Hatayspor
1.20

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par
Hatayspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Hatayspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw
73%
Galatasaray or Hatayspor
74%
Draw or Hatayspor
52%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+
24%
Hatayspor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals
78%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
45%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
20%
Hatayspor 1+ goals
66%
Hatayspor 2+ goals
29%
Hatayspor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)
64%
Hatayspor (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Hatayspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 1.86 + Hatayspor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.53

Hatayspor attack 1.00 + Galatasaray defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Galatasaray scores more
48%
level
26%
Hatayspor scores more
27%

Galatasaray at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Galatasaray 2–0 Hatayspor

Galatasaray beat Hatayspor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on February 6, 2019.

The match was played at Türk Telekom Stadyumu in İstanbul.