Galatasaray 3–0 Fenerbahçe: Result & Stats

Galatasaray

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fenerbahçe

L. Torreira 83'

B. A. Yilmaz 67' (pen)

V. Osimhen 40'

4/26/2026

League #203 · Round 31Rams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Galatasaray40%

×Draw24%

Fenerbahçe36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalatasarayExpected goals in this matchFenerbahçe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.50

Galatasaray

1.57

Fenerbahçe

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 16 away

2.25

creates per match

2.06

0.93

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Galatasaray

2.25

Fenerbahçe

2.06

allows per match

Galatasaray

0.93

Fenerbahçe

0.89

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

Galatasaray+0.29scores more

Fenerbahçe+0.63scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Fenerbahçe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw

64%

Galatasaray or Fenerbahçe

76%

Draw or Fenerbahçe

60%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+

19%

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals

79%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

46%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

21%

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

78%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

44%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

52%

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.93 · 26 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.25 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.57

Fenerbahçe attack 2.06 + Galatasaray defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Galatasaray scores more

40%

level

24%

Fenerbahçe scores more

36%

Galatasaray at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Sane

Galatasaray · M

8.5

Match Events

5'

6'

23'

23'

40'

V. Osimhen↳ M. Lemina

41'

Yunus Akgün

57'

Lucas TorreiraGoal cancelled

62'

Ederson

62'

Ederson

65'

M. Gunok← Talisca

66'

I. Yuksek← K. Akturkoglu

67'

B. A. YilmazPenalty

68'

Barış Alper Yılmaz

68'

N. Lang← Y. Akgun

71'

A. Musaba← D. Nene

82'

I. Gundogan← B. A. Yilmaz

82'

82'

83'

84'

85'

85'

85'

90+6'

90+6'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GalatasarayFenerbahçe

Overview

63%Possession37%

21Total Shots5

2.71Expected Goals (xG)1.25

6Corners4

16Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots5

8On Target1

7Off Target3

6Blocked1

15Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

454Total Passes266

395Accurate Passes203

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

1.15Goals Prevented1.15

Discipline

16Fouls13

5Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

4Offsides3

Match Recap: Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe

Galatasaray beat Fenerbahçe 3-0 in League #203 on April 26, 2026.

Goals: V. Osimhen (40'), B. A. Yilmaz (67' pen), L. Torreira (83').

Galatasaray controlled possession (63%) and registered 21 shots to 5.

The match was played at Rams Park in Istanbul.

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe