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Galatasaray vs Denizlispor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Galatasaray
Galatasaray
Pens
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Denizlispor
Denizlispor
12/28/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundNEF Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Galatasaray33%
×Draw23%
Denizlispor44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galatasaray
1.56
Denizlispor
1.82

Denizlispor creates 17% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 4 away

creates per match

Galatasaray
1.86
Denizlispor
2.50

allows per match

Galatasaray
1.14
Denizlispor
1.25

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par
Denizlispor+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Denizlispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw
56%
Galatasaray or Denizlispor
77%
Draw or Denizlispor
67%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+
16%
Denizlispor wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals
79%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
46%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
21%
Denizlispor 1+ goals
84%
Denizlispor 2+ goals
54%
Denizlispor 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)
43%
Denizlispor (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Denizlispor away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 1.86 + Denizlispor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Denizlispor attack 2.50 + Galatasaray defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Galatasaray scores more
33%
level
23%
Denizlispor scores more
44%

Denizlispor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Galatasaray 3–3 Denizlispor

Galatasaray and Denizlispor drew 3-3 in Türkiye Kupası on December 28, 2021.

The match was played at NEF Stadyumu in İstanbul.