Galatasaray 1–0 Darıca Gençlerbirliği

Galatasaray

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Darıca Gençlerbirliği

12/15/2020

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundTürk Telekom Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Galatasaray47%

×Draw23%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalatasarayExpected goals in this matchDarıca Gençlerbirliği

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.32

Galatasaray

1.75

Darıca Gençlerbirliği

1.32

Galatasaray creates 33% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

1.86

creates per match

1.50

1.14

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Galatasaray

1.86

Darıca Gençlerbirliği

1.50

allows per match

Galatasaray

1.14

Darıca Gençlerbirliği

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par

Darıca Gençlerbirliği+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Darıca Gençlerbirliği →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw

71%

Galatasaray or Darıca Gençlerbirliği

77%

Draw or Darıca Gençlerbirliği

53%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+

26%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals

83%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

52%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

25%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği 1+ goals

73%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği 2+ goals

38%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

62%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Darıca Gençlerbirliği away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 1.86 + Darıca Gençlerbirliği defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.75

Darıca Gençlerbirliği attack 1.50 + Galatasaray defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Galatasaray scores more

47%

level

23%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği scores more

29%

Galatasaray at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff