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Galatasaray vs Beykoz Anadolu — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Galatasaray
Galatasaray
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Beykoz Anadolu
Beykoz Anadolu
12/4/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundTürk Telekom Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Galatasaray29%
×Draw23%
Beykoz Anadolu48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galatasaray
1.33
Beykoz Anadolu
1.77

Beykoz Anadolu creates 33% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 5 away

creates per match

Galatasaray
1.86
Beykoz Anadolu
2.40

allows per match

Galatasaray
1.14
Beykoz Anadolu
0.80

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par
Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Beykoz Anadolu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw
52%
Galatasaray or Beykoz Anadolu
77%
Draw or Beykoz Anadolu
71%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+
12%
Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals
74%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
38%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
15%
Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals
83%
Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals
53%
Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)
38%
Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Beykoz Anadolu away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 1.86 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.33

Beykoz Anadolu attack 2.40 + Galatasaray defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Galatasaray scores more
29%
level
23%
Beykoz Anadolu scores more
48%

Beykoz Anadolu at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Beykoz Anadolu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Galatasaray 0–2 Beykoz Anadolu

Beykoz Anadolu beat Galatasaray 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 4, 2019.

The match was played at Türk Telekom Stadyumu in İstanbul.