Galapagar 1–2 Villanueva Pardillo: Result & Stats

Galapagar

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Villanueva Pardillo

11/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 10Estadio Galapagar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Galapagar40%

×Draw27%

Villanueva Pardillo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalapagarExpected goals in this matchVillanueva Pardillo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.17

Galapagar

1.33

Villanueva Pardillo

1.17

Galapagar creates 14% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 50 away

1.55

creates per match

0.90

1.44

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Galapagar

1.55

Villanueva Pardillo

0.90

allows per match

Galapagar

1.44

Villanueva Pardillo

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galapagar+0.00on par

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galapagar ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Galapagar or draw

67%

Galapagar or Villanueva Pardillo

73%

Draw or Villanueva Pardillo

60%

Winning margin

Galapagar wins by 2+

18%

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Galapagar 1+ goals

74%

Galapagar 2+ goals

38%

Galapagar 3+ goals

15%

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals

69%

Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals

33%

Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Galapagar (draw refunded)

55%

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Galapagar at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Galapagar attack 1.55 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + Galapagar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Galapagar scores more

40%

level

27%

Villanueva Pardillo scores more

33%

Galapagar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Galapagar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff