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Galapagar vs Ursaria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Galapagar
Galapagar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ursaria
Ursaria
9/26/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 5Estadio Galapagar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Galapagar33%
×Draw26%
Ursaria41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galapagar
1.23
Ursaria
1.41

Ursaria creates 15% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 35 away

creates per match

Galapagar
1.55
Ursaria
1.37

allows per match

Galapagar
1.44
Ursaria
0.91

finishing

Galapagar+0.00on par
Ursaria+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galapagar ↓

Ursaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Galapagar or draw
59%
Galapagar or Ursaria
74%
Draw or Ursaria
67%

Winning margin

Galapagar wins by 2+
14%
Ursaria wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Galapagar 1+ goals
71%
Galapagar 2+ goals
35%
Galapagar 3+ goals
13%
Ursaria 1+ goals
76%
Ursaria 2+ goals
41%
Ursaria 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Galapagar (draw refunded)
44%
Ursaria (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galapagar at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

Ursaria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galapagar attack 1.55 + Ursaria defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ursaria attack 1.37 + Galapagar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Galapagar scores more
33%
level
26%
Ursaria scores more
41%

Ursaria at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Galapagar vs Ursaria

Galapagar beat Ursaria 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Galapagar in Madrid.