Galapagar 3–3 Móstoles: Result & Stats

Galapagar

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Móstoles

5/1/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 32Estadio Galapagar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Galapagar36%

×Draw26%

Móstoles38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalapagarExpected goals in this matchMóstoles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.37

Galapagar

1.32

Móstoles

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 76 away

1.55

creates per match

1.30

1.44

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Galapagar

1.55

Móstoles

1.30

allows per match

Galapagar

1.44

Móstoles

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galapagar+0.00on par

Móstoles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galapagar ↓

Móstoles →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Galapagar or draw

62%

Galapagar or Móstoles

74%

Draw or Móstoles

64%

Winning margin

Galapagar wins by 2+

16%

Móstoles wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Galapagar 1+ goals

73%

Galapagar 2+ goals

38%

Galapagar 3+ goals

15%

Móstoles 1+ goals

75%

Móstoles 2+ goals

40%

Móstoles 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Galapagar (draw refunded)

48%

Móstoles (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Galapagar at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

Móstoles away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Galapagar attack 1.55 + Móstoles defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.32

Móstoles attack 1.30 + Galapagar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Galapagar scores more

36%

level

26%

Móstoles scores more

38%

Móstoles at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff