Galapagar 1–1 Madrid 2021 FP: Result & Stats

Galapagar

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Madrid 2021 FP

4/2/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 27Estadio Galapagar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Galapagar40%

×Draw25%

Madrid 2021 FP35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalapagarExpected goals in this matchMadrid 2021 FP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.35

Galapagar

1.45

Madrid 2021 FP

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 35 away

1.55

creates per match

1.26

1.44

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Galapagar

1.55

Madrid 2021 FP

1.26

allows per match

Galapagar

1.44

Madrid 2021 FP

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galapagar+0.00on par

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galapagar ↓

Madrid 2021 FP →

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Galapagar or draw

65%

Galapagar or Madrid 2021 FP

75%

Draw or Madrid 2021 FP

60%

Winning margin

Galapagar wins by 2+

19%

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Galapagar 1+ goals

77%

Galapagar 2+ goals

42%

Galapagar 3+ goals

18%

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals

74%

Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals

39%

Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Galapagar (draw refunded)

53%

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Galapagar at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

Madrid 2021 FP away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Galapagar attack 1.55 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.26 + Galapagar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Galapagar scores more

40%

level

25%

Madrid 2021 FP scores more

35%

Galapagar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Galapagar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff